Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
good looks money retailers tax
Looks to us like tax rebate money is being spent, ... Retailers should have a good autumn.
abandon changed clear congress current economic fiscal greenspan interest level mind next signal situation sound testimony
Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
continue faster greenspan risks
Mr. Greenspan is set to continue the unloosening, the risks of which are 'outweighed' by the benefits, and he'll go faster if he has to,
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Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.
greenspan ruled
Mr. Greenspan has all but ruled out a May tightening.
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Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.
consumer face hold lower question sales whether
Now the question is whether sales can hold up in the face of lower consumer confidence,
guess negative next
Next month, payrolls will plunge. Our guess is negative 500,000.
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We believed the underlying level of claims peaked in the spring. This suggests that they may now genuinely have begun to decline.
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The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,
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The data confirm that the labor market is still not generating the sort of cost pressures many analysts expected with 4 percent unemployment.
bad change good last news overall trade worst
At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.
dip november numbers retail sales small surprised
At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.
corporate domestic gross implies percent product recovery strong survey
A strong U.S. corporate recovery is brewing right now -- this survey implies 4 percent gross domestic product growth,