Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
aircraft apart data downward fell headline hit nearly official orders reported revision seems soft
The headline is all about Boeing, which reported 200 new aircraft orders in May, up from 14 in April. Unusually, it seems that nearly all these orders have hit the official data immediately. Apart from this, however, these are soft data. Ex-transportation orders fell 0.2% and there was a downward revision to April, now put at -0.7%.
clearly impact
The impact of the hurricanes is now clearly diminishing,
allowing environment favorable fiscal hugely improvement market melted monetary spring stock work
The improvement in the stock market is allowing the hugely favorable monetary and fiscal environment to do its work -- just as it was in the spring before the stock market melted down,
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The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.
auto chicago couple dip follow indicator january less mean movements national past reliable result volatile
The Chicago PMI has been very volatile over the past couple of years, probably as a result of the tribulations of the auto industry. As a result it has become a less reliable indicator of movements in the national ISM and the January dip does not necessarily mean the ISM will follow suit.
deficit next rebound trends underlying
The underlying trends are still adverse, however, and the deficit will rebound next month.
claims trend true underlying
The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow.
awful far numbers
These are pretty awful numbers and, as far as we know, there are no mitigating circumstances.
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This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.
clearly favorable low marks number shift
This is a low enough number to be interesting, but not so low that it clearly marks a favorable shift in the trend,
clearly despite dip housing market roll temporary
The housing market is clearly on a roll again, despite the -- probably temporary -- dip in confidence.
coming core details economy extent faces goods inflation overall
The details are not as important as the overall message, which is that to the extent that the U.S. economy faces an inflation threat, it is not coming from core goods prices.
bit close details domestic final quarter second solid stronger though
The details are close to our expectations, though consumers' spending, up 5.5%, was a bit stronger than we expected. Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker.
aircraft building consumer delivery due higher january lower mostly orders pulled reported revision
The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable-goods numbers. In February, the index was pulled down by lower consumer confidence, higher jobless claims, shorter delivery times and lower building permits.