Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
claims consistent disaster push rate
While claims at 350,000 or so would not be a disaster, they would be consistent with (monthly) payrolls trending at only about 125,000 -- not enough to push the unemployment rate any lower.
consumers couple expect months rough
We expect a couple of very rough months for consumers spending.
depressed drop expect katrina pushed sentiment
We expect a big drop in September: Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims.
claims lower signal strong
For now, claims signal strong payrolls and a lower unemployment rate.
claims current expect percent rate remain
If claims remain at their current level, we could expect the unemployment rate to be down to 4 percent or so by mid-summer.
anywhere claims labor market near remain send signal strong
If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.
deficit next rebound trends underlying
The underlying trends are still adverse, however, and the deficit will rebound next month.
claims trend true underlying
The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow.
awful far numbers
These are pretty awful numbers and, as far as we know, there are no mitigating circumstances.
cited depressed distorted evidence extremely housing hugely industrial january market report retail sales strong surely warm weather
This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.
clearly favorable low marks number shift
This is a low enough number to be interesting, but not so low that it clearly marks a favorable shift in the trend,
clearly despite dip housing market roll temporary
The housing market is clearly on a roll again, despite the -- probably temporary -- dip in confidence.
book clear comments compared economy labor march paints picture recent worrying
The March Beige Book paints a clear picture of an economy straining at the seams. Significantly, compared to recent Beige Books, there was more detail, and a more worrying tone, to the comments on the labor market.
key question quickly
The key question now is how quickly it recovers,