Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
bit fed leave less markets perhaps pushing report
This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.
asian continuing exactly fed rebound report
This report indicates manufacturing is continuing to rebound from the Asian crisis, which is exactly what the Fed expects.
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The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?
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If this continues, it can do real damage to core inflation, making it all the more important that the Fed succeeds in slowing the economy to ease inflation pressure.
certainly cutting exciting fed guess impression market might rates slash soon thinking thinks three weeks
My guess is it won't be very exciting because he already told us three weeks ago what he thinks. He's certainly not going to say anything that suggests the Fed might be thinking about not cutting rates as soon as the market thinks but I don't think he'll want to give the impression that they're going to slash rates even more aggressively.
absence again certain chance complete current economy evidence evident fed given meaningful pressure rates rise sensitive slowing
Given the complete absence of meaningful inflationary pressure evident in the economy now, and -- as the Fed put it, 'tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy' -- we think there is very little chance that rates will rise again in the current cycle.
bit both cautious chairman clear fed knows means policy recovery steer views wants
There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways. But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing,
confidence ease favor fed meantime next odds rebound surely
We think confidence will rebound next month, but in the meantime the odds surely now favor a Fed ease next week,
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The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.
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Skeptics will argue this is just a post-war bounce that won't last, but we disagree, ... The ISM was in the mid-50s before the war, thanks to very loose policy, and there's no reason why it can't return to those levels very soon. The Fed does not need to ease again.
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The Fed is now explicitly conducting monetary policy with the aim of supporting stock prices,
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The Fed is nearly done. The U.S. economy is coming back.
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The Fed has begun to prepare the markets for higher interest rates, ... almost balanced.
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The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.