Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
change claims consistent labor level low major simply
At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market.
abandon changed clear congress current economic fiscal greenspan interest level mind next signal situation sound testimony
Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
change cut economic falling numbers october outlook quarter rate reflect rising second shock
This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
both change good growth lifts point quarter report starting
This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,
change clear news tone
There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.
alone bit change good likely news room slow today
With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.
bad change good last news overall trade worst
At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.
begin change data fed force otherwise soon
The upcoming data will soon enough force the Fed to change its stance, otherwise it will begin to look ridiculous,
both brief chain change either huge maybe mystery numbers pointed revised sales square store
The mystery is how to square with this with both the Redbook and Bloomberg chain store sales surveys, which pointed to a huge gain, ... Maybe it will come in March, or today's numbers will be revised up. Either way, this is a brief diversion, not a change of course.
change driving fed inflation looks report underlying
Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.
book changed ease economy fed future likely tells
The Fed will likely ease on Nov. 6, but the Beige Book has not changed the odds, ... And it tells us nothing about the future of the economy or Fed policy.
change clearly debate despite fed further hikes likely looking market minutes number outlook policy reason strong
The Fed's minutes do not change the near-term outlook for policy despite the strong market reaction. Clearly there is some debate as to how much further tightening will be necessary, as the minutes say the number of hikes will likely 'not be large,' but 'large' is undefined. This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
activity auto changes chicago conditions recent survey volatile
The Chicago survey is very susceptible to changes in conditions in the auto industry, where activity has been very volatile in recent months.
couple expect fall gas huge latest months next prices
We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.