Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
oil price prices reflects report rise shows stop worrying
The price index was up, ... This reflects the rise in oil prices and not much else, but that won't stop doom-mongers worrying about it. In short, the report shows manufacturing is still on track.
aircraft core eventually forecast goods impact oil prices spike trade undone
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering; it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.
fully higher leap notable oil prices reflection simply
Most notable was the leap in the prices-paid index, ... this is simply a reflection of higher oil prices but it may not have been fully anticipated in the markets.
deficit hit likely numbers oil petroleum prices rise rose
The rise in oil prices was always likely to hit these numbers with a vengeance, and the petroleum deficit duly rose by $1.4 billion.
beginning cutting drop excuse fed given market oil prices stock time
The drop in stock prices is no excuse to beginning cutting rates, as some in the market desperately want to believe, ... Given where oil prices are and given what the fundamentals still suggest, I don't see the Fed doing anything for the time being.
bigger cares core declines fed fuel further gas headline labor market natural oil prices pulled slightly slow slowing wake year
The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7% year over year, down from May's 2.8% peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.
change cut economic falling numbers october outlook quarter rate reflect rising second shock
This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
expect reason
There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.
bit fed leave less markets perhaps pushing report
This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.
consistent gathering industrial looks recovery report stronger
This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,
report stronger
This report is much stronger than it first appears.
asian continuing exactly fed rebound report
This report indicates manufacturing is continuing to rebound from the Asian crisis, which is exactly what the Fed expects.
both change good growth lifts point quarter report starting
This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,
report
This report augurs very well for the holidays.