Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
abandon changed clear congress current economic fiscal greenspan interest level mind next signal situation sound testimony
Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
continue faster greenspan risks
Mr. Greenspan is set to continue the unloosening, the risks of which are 'outweighed' by the benefits, and he'll go faster if he has to,
blame clear congress cut fiscal greenspan light partly position problems turnaround
Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.
greenspan ruled
Mr. Greenspan has all but ruled out a May tightening.
clearly door explicit greenspan leave lower open risks time wants
Mr. Greenspan clearly wants to leave the door open to lower rates, but he was more explicit this time in his acknowledgement that there are risks on the other side.
bears claims conditions continuing doubt expect highlight improving initial labor market payroll ratio report rise rising shaky signals soft
No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved: A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving -- but we still expect a soft payroll report Friday.
cold consistent data downward drop fall fast housing month sales signs starts steep turn west wet whether
One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.
ability auto car due few higher hold increasing labor lead means numbers recently sales seen stronger together unit
Only a few years ago, auto sales numbers like those seen recently would have automatically lead to expectations of higher prices, ... Now, increasing transparency in car prices, substantially due to the Internet, together with the automakers' ability to hold down unit labor costs, means that stronger sales do not necessarily lead to higher prices.
ability auto car due few higher hold increasing labor lead means sales seen stronger together unit
Only a few years ago, auto sales numbers, like those seen recently, would have automatically lead to expectations of higher prices, ... Now, increasing transparency in car prices, substantially due to the Internet, together with the automakers' ability to hold down unit labor costs, means that stronger sales do not necessarily lead to higher prices.
guess ignoring market moment moving numbers seem slow supporting
My guess is that is that at the moment these numbers seem to be supporting the slow down story, ... But the market is pretty much ignoring it and moving on.
certainly cutting exciting fed guess impression market might rates slash soon thinking thinks three weeks
My guess is it won't be very exciting because he already told us three weeks ago what he thinks. He's certainly not going to say anything that suggests the Fed might be thinking about not cutting rates as soon as the market thinks but I don't think he'll want to give the impression that they're going to slash rates even more aggressively.
consumer face hold lower question sales whether
Now the question is whether sales can hold up in the face of lower consumer confidence,
conditions consumer drop expect fully putting sentiment softer spending
We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.
cut great hurry impression rates testimony
This testimony did not give the impression that he is in a great hurry to cut rates immediately.