Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,
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There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.
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A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
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Clearly, these are disappointing numbers and should put to rest the notion that there a tech-driven miracle in U.S. productivity in the last few years, ... There was a boom, and booms drive up productivity -- until they bust.
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The Fed can and will be much more of an active player in the stock market until it turns the corner,
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
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These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
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(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
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These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,
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The statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive.
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Things will likely get worse before they get better.
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These are spectacular numbers and confirm that the labor market is not at the moment the source of anything that could be plausibly described as inflationary pressure.