Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
consistent dip economic gas growth level line month next quite recent renewed spending spike wake watch
At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.
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We think confidence will rebound next month, but in the meantime the odds surely now favor a Fed ease next week,
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Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.
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We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading.
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Next month, payrolls will plunge. Our guess is negative 500,000.
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Eventually, the housing slowdown will affect retail sales too, but that is probably a story for the spring of next year, at the earliest.
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We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
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With unemployment set to breach 6 percent over the next few months, people's view of the current economy is bound to deteriorate, ... But expectations are what matter for spending, and at this level the numbers suggest consumers spending will rise, albeit not rapidly.
core few finished next prices slow strongly
This strongly suggests that core finished goods' prices will slow over the next few months,
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Over the next few months we expect starts to strengthen as reconstruction begins on the Gulf Coast - the rise in permits may be an early sign - but elsewhere starts still need to lag sales. Demand is still huge but there are too many new homes for sale.
next
As for the Fed, we look for 50 (basis points, a half-percentage point) next week.
auto fall far means next numbers sales unit
Auto sales did not fall as far as the unit sales numbers suggested. This means there'll probably be a catch-up -- downwards -- next month.