Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
couple data expect further gains gasoline growth months next order quarter signal wake
We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
excess falling hopeful inventory light orders output stronger
Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.
accelerate companies numbers orders output pace running suggested
Output will not immediately accelerate to the pace suggested by the orders numbers ... because companies are still aggressively running down inventory.
gain november orders revision robust
Overall, this is a very robust report. There was a big upward revision to November orders excluding transportation, to a gain of 0.6% from down 0.6%.
bottom content data durable information line orders report single small true volatility
The bottom line here is that the month-to-month volatility in the durable orders data is such that the true information content in a single report is very small -- there's just too much noise.
asia crisis higher industrial orders recovers report signs
The report suggests that industrial orders are trending higher as manufacturing recovers from the Asia crisis, ... There are no real signs of a slowdown.
aircraft building consumer delivery due higher january lower mostly orders pulled reported revision
The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable-goods numbers. In February, the index was pulled down by lower consumer confidence, higher jobless claims, shorter delivery times and lower building permits.
aircraft apart data downward fell headline hit nearly official orders reported revision seems soft
The headline is all about Boeing, which reported 200 new aircraft orders in May, up from 14 in April. Unusually, it seems that nearly all these orders have hit the official data immediately. Apart from this, however, these are soft data. Ex-transportation orders fell 0.2% and there was a downward revision to April, now put at -0.7%.
change cut economic falling numbers october outlook quarter rate reflect rising second shock
This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
expect reason
There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.
oil price prices reflects report rise shows stop worrying
The price index was up, ... This reflects the rise in oil prices and not much else, but that won't stop doom-mongers worrying about it. In short, the report shows manufacturing is still on track.
bit fed leave less markets perhaps pushing report
This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.
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This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,
report stronger
This report is much stronger than it first appears.