Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
bit fed leave less markets perhaps pushing report
This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.
dips further good less line news state stock
The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,
cuts extent further interest lesser presumably prices rebound reflection rise stock though
The rise in (confidence) is presumably a reflection of the rebound in stock prices and -- though to a lesser extent -- the further cuts in interest rates,
auto chicago couple dip follow indicator january less mean movements national past reliable result volatile
The Chicago PMI has been very volatile over the past couple of years, probably as a result of the tribulations of the auto industry. As a result it has become a less reliable indicator of movements in the national ISM and the January dip does not necessarily mean the ISM will follow suit.
change cut economic falling numbers october outlook quarter rate reflect rising second shock
This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
expect reason
There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.
oil price prices reflects report rise shows stop worrying
The price index was up, ... This reflects the rise in oil prices and not much else, but that won't stop doom-mongers worrying about it. In short, the report shows manufacturing is still on track.
consistent gathering industrial looks recovery report stronger
This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,
report stronger
This report is much stronger than it first appears.
asian continuing exactly fed rebound report
This report indicates manufacturing is continuing to rebound from the Asian crisis, which is exactly what the Fed expects.
both change good growth lifts point quarter report starting
This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,
report
This report augurs very well for the holidays.
october rebound signal since strong sustained
The rebound in expectations since October is still big enough to signal strong first-quarter consumption, but not a sustained boom.
change clear news tone
There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.