Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
change cut economic falling numbers october outlook quarter rate reflect rising second shock
This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
accept apparently caused claims data events exactly extra flow job losses second slowing straight
For the second straight week, jobless claims have substantially undershot the consensus, ... Analysts apparently do not want to accept that the flow of extra job losses caused by the events of Sept. 11 is slowing sharply, but that is exactly what the data indicate.
domestic expect final growth led quarter second sharp slow slowing solid
Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.
adding growth jump lift percent quarter second
This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations. We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.
bit close details domestic final quarter second solid stronger though
The details are close to our expectations, though consumers' spending, up 5.5%, was a bit stronger than we expected. Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker.
expect reason
There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.
oil price prices reflects report rise shows stop worrying
The price index was up, ... This reflects the rise in oil prices and not much else, but that won't stop doom-mongers worrying about it. In short, the report shows manufacturing is still on track.
bit fed leave less markets perhaps pushing report
This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.
consistent gathering industrial looks recovery report stronger
This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,
report stronger
This report is much stronger than it first appears.
asian continuing exactly fed rebound report
This report indicates manufacturing is continuing to rebound from the Asian crisis, which is exactly what the Fed expects.
both change good growth lifts point quarter report starting
This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,
report
This report augurs very well for the holidays.
october rebound signal since strong sustained
The rebound in expectations since October is still big enough to signal strong first-quarter consumption, but not a sustained boom.