Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
couple expect fall gas huge latest months next prices
We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
couple data expect further gains gasoline growth months next order quarter signal wake
We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
activity again demand expect fourth highs home immediate mortgage permits reason response rose straight strength strong though
The surge in activity is a lagged response to the strength of new home sales, and with mortgage demand now well off its highs -- though still strong -- it probably can't last, ... But there is no reason to expect an immediate plunge, not least because permits rose again in February, for the fourth straight month.
consumers couple expect months rough
We expect a couple of very rough months for consumers spending.
depressed drop expect katrina pushed sentiment
We expect a big drop in September: Katrina has depressed sentiment and pushed up jobless claims.
call cycle declines economic expect normal quickly recession responding
If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.
bears claims conditions continuing doubt expect highlight improving initial labor market payroll ratio report rise rising shaky signals soft
No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved: A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving -- but we still expect a soft payroll report Friday.
conditions consumer drop expect fully putting sentiment softer spending
We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.
expect reason
There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.
economy expect housing lead obvious patience sustained
Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue.
currently displaced expect million payroll september time work
There are currently more than a million displaced people, and I don't expect many of them to be back at work by the time of the September payroll survey.
companies consumers demand doom expect negative news notion scale truth
We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.
data expect fourth increase last month percent rose spending suggest
The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,
confirm cost data expected generating labor market percent pressures sort
The data confirm that the labor market is still not generating the sort of cost pressures many analysts expected with 4 percent unemployment.