Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
industrial production recovery
Production was steady, ... a real industrial recovery is still some way off.
borrow consumer money people pursue willing
People told consumer surveys they were miserable, but they were willing to borrow money to pursue a bargain,
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Even though most people displaced by the storm are still away from their homes, Labor Department officials have been helping people make claims from their temporary accommodations.
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Believe it or not, this is a seriously encouraging report. There is a very good chance the underlying deficit has now peaked.
cannot good record sending signal survey track welcome
The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.
activity again demand expect fourth highs home immediate mortgage permits reason response rose straight strength strong though
The surge in activity is a lagged response to the strength of new home sales, and with mortgage demand now well off its highs -- though still strong -- it probably can't last, ... But there is no reason to expect an immediate plunge, not least because permits rose again in February, for the fourth straight month.
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As the newspapers remind us every day, job layoffs are still high, but the point is that they now appear to be slowing, ... The worst is over, and the decline in output and employment will soon slow.
change claims consistent labor level low major simply
At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market.
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At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.
almost cash caused certainly core energy flow hit hugely leap rebound result sales strongly
Core sales slowed hugely at the end of the year, almost certainly as a result of the cash flow hit caused by the post-Katrina leap in energy prices. This is now over, and sales should rebound strongly in the first quarter.
core exports percent prevent widening year
Core exports are trending up at about 10 percent year over year, not enough to prevent a widening of the deficit.
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Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.
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This number comes completely out of the blue -- there has been nothing in the anecdotal or survey evidence even hinting at such a massive rebound,
report waters
We think not, but this report muddies the waters for the FOMC.