Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
appear data point recent renewed sales
Overall, the recent sales data appear to point to a renewed upturn in spending.
labor market progress
Overall, the labor market is improving, but progress is still slow,
bit quite
Overall, still quite strong, but a bit disconcerting nonetheless.
domestic expect final growth led quarter second sharp slow slowing solid
Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.
dragging home housing mortgage sales slide starts view
Our view is that home sales will slide through the summer, dragging housing starts down into the fall. But this is still no more than a forecast; mortgage applications are still very strong.
accelerate companies numbers orders output pace running suggested
Output will not immediately accelerate to the pace suggested by the orders numbers ... because companies are still aggressively running down inventory.
chance comfort consumer doubt looking mark markets next numbers slowing start temporary
Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.
current demand home house level looking purchase recently sales sufficient sustain
Looking forward, we can be unequivocal: New home sales have to fall, because the level of demand for new mortgages for house purchase recently has not been sufficient to sustain current sales rates.
bar clearly downside further looking risks
Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,
confidence consistent consumer level percent soon spending sure
It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained, ... The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth.
bad case cause clearly good hard inflation prices problems recent threat trend
It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own.
adjustment auto cope drop due impossible inability reflects simply underlying
It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend,
beginning improvement labor market start though
It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.
buys current demand drop home house mortgage regardless sales sustained tells uses
Just about everyone who buys a house uses a mortgage, so a sustained drop in mortgage demand tells you where home sales are going, regardless of the current sales data.