Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.
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The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?
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We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.
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This testimony did not give the impression that he is in a great hurry to cut rates immediately.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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Even though most people displaced by the storm are still away from their homes, Labor Department officials have been helping people make claims from their temporary accommodations.
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Believe it or not, this is a seriously encouraging report. There is a very good chance the underlying deficit has now peaked.
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As the newspapers remind us every day, job layoffs are still high, but the point is that they now appear to be slowing, ... The worst is over, and the decline in output and employment will soon slow.
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At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market.
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The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,
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Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.
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Expectations had risen a bit too far, too fast, and were vulnerable to a correction; this is it.
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Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.