Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
faces fed forward growth happen looking question wake
The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?
couple data expect further gains gasoline growth months next order quarter signal wake
We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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It is disappointing in the wake of the huge rise in the Empire State survey -- the indexes are usually at similar levels,
consistent dip economic gas growth level line month next quite recent renewed spending spike wake watch
At this level the index is consistent with spending growth of about 3.5 percent, in line with recent economic data. But watch out for a dip next month in the wake of the renewed spike in gas prices. Overall, though, quite robust.
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The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7% year over year, down from May's 2.8% peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.
change cut economic falling numbers october outlook quarter rate reflect rising second shock
This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
expect reason
There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.
oil price prices reflects report rise shows stop worrying
The price index was up, ... This reflects the rise in oil prices and not much else, but that won't stop doom-mongers worrying about it. In short, the report shows manufacturing is still on track.
bit fed leave less markets perhaps pushing report
This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.
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This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,
report stronger
This report is much stronger than it first appears.
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This report indicates manufacturing is continuing to rebound from the Asian crisis, which is exactly what the Fed expects.
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This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,
report
This report augurs very well for the holidays.