Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
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Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.
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Only a few years ago, auto sales numbers like those seen recently would have automatically lead to expectations of higher prices, ... Now, increasing transparency in car prices, substantially due to the Internet, together with the automakers' ability to hold down unit labor costs, means that stronger sales do not necessarily lead to higher prices.
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My guess is that is that at the moment these numbers seem to be supporting the slow down story, ... But the market is pretty much ignoring it and moving on.
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No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.
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Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.
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Output will not immediately accelerate to the pace suggested by the orders numbers ... because companies are still aggressively running down inventory.
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With unemployment set to breach 6 percent over the next few months, people's view of the current economy is bound to deteriorate, ... But expectations are what matter for spending, and at this level the numbers suggest consumers spending will rise, albeit not rapidly.
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With three sub-300,000 numbers in the past four weeks, it is beginning to look as though there has been some real improvement in the labor markets this year.
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With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.
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Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us. Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.
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Despite undershooting the consensus, these numbers do not look too bad to us, ... Confidence might well dip further -- job fears hit a 28-month high this month -- but the big plunge looks to be over.
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Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006.
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The message from these claims numbers is strong and clear. The labor market is extremely tight.