Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
chief clear consumer fall fed labor leave rate rates signs worry
The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market. So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.
chief clear consumer fall fed labor leave rate rates signs worry
The Fed's chief worry is still the labor market, ... So long as the unemployment rate does not fall further, and clear signs of consumer slowed own emerge, the Fed will be able to leave rates on hold.
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condo/co-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10% from their summer peak.
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Auto sales did not fall as far as the unit sales numbers suggested. This means there'll probably be a catch-up -- downwards -- next month.
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One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.
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Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.
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This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
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Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.
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In any event, a single durable good report will have little effect on the Fed.
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Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.
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Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006.
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The new Fed Chairman clearly expects to have to raise rates a bit further, but the extent of the tightening is dependent on the relative performance of the labor and housing markets.
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the need for higher rates may now be even greater than before the storm.