Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
august basis ease easing good point seems
Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.
believe chance deficit good seriously underlying
Believe it or not, this is a seriously encouraging report. There is a very good chance the underlying deficit has now peaked.
cannot good record sending signal survey track welcome
The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.
good looks money retailers tax
Looks to us like tax rebate money is being spent, ... Retailers should have a good autumn.
august chance good leaning september
There is still a good chance for an August hike, but we are leaning increasingly to September or even November.
both change good growth lifts point quarter report starting
This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,
chance data few good home next sales seriously starts worst
We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading.
dips further good less line news state stock
The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,
alone bit change good likely news room slow today
With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.
consistent good indicator leading modest push spending stocks stronger
Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
adjusted chance decline fully good industrial sector soon steep
It it too soon to be sure, but we think there is a good chance that the industrial sector has now fully adjusted to the summer's steep decline in confidence.
aircraft core eventually forecast goods impact oil prices spike trade undone
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering; it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.
bad change good last news overall trade worst
At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.