Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
april data due favorable four given housing level likely lowest months mortgage number previous sales shows signal since strong trend
The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.
commentary conclusion death effect followed greatly housing market numbers possible rash rumors sales starts trend wrong
Doubtless these numbers will be followed by a rash of commentary to the effect that rumors of the death of the housing market are greatly exaggerated. This would be the wrong conclusion to draw. It is not possible for sales to trend down and starts to trend up.
clear depressed doubt higher home housing indication interest inventory lack market months numbers rates recent sign starts taken
No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.
cold consistent data downward drop fall fast housing month sales signs starts steep turn west wet whether
One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.
economy expect housing lead obvious patience sustained
Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue.
affect housing next retail sales spring
Eventually, the housing slowdown will affect retail sales too, but that is probably a story for the spring of next year, at the earliest.
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The wage story is gathering real momentum. The Fed is going to 5%, and more if housing does not collapse by mid-year.
buyers homes housing remains supply unable
Supply remains tight; buyers may have been unable to find the homes they want where they want them. Housing will not fold.
accept activity aftermath fell housing immediate optimistic relatively remain
We remain relatively optimistic about the housing market, but we do accept that activity fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11,
anytime existing homes housing lack market means mortgage prices quickly rates rise sales sign simply supply turned
There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.
anytime existing homes housing lack market means mortgage prices quickly rates rise sales sign simply supply turned
There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down, ... The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.
dip ensure expect home housing low lower mortgage quarter rates rebound recession reflects renewed sales sector strength
The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.
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A serious downturn in housing activity will have to wait until there is a meaningful increase in mortgage rates, ... For that, we have to wait until payrolls take off and the Fed signals tighter policy.
dragging home housing mortgage sales slide starts view
Our view is that home sales will slide through the summer, dragging housing starts down into the fall. But this is still no more than a forecast; mortgage applications are still very strong.