Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
across areas country data economy few hit next number outside state sure week weeks
We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
appear data point recent renewed sales
Overall, the recent sales data appear to point to a renewed upturn in spending.
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The ISM survey clearly promises much bigger increases in production ahead, but for now the official data are lagging the survey a bit,
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We think Mr. Greenspan is willing to give the data a chance; it will take bad data to force an August rate hike,
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
april data due favorable four given housing level likely lowest months mortgage number previous sales shows signal since strong trend
The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.
begin change data fed force otherwise soon
The upcoming data will soon enough force the Fed to change its stance, otherwise it will begin to look ridiculous,
bottom content data durable information line orders report single small true volatility
The bottom line here is that the month-to-month volatility in the durable orders data is such that the true information content in a single report is very small -- there's just too much noise.
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The statement leaves room for inaction in November if the data fail to thrive.
again close confidence cycle data higher home interest last leave reported rise sales sit together tone week
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.
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(These data are) bad news for (corporate profit) margins or future inflation -- or both,
again data growth income net people slower
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,
cold consistent data downward drop fall fast housing month sales signs starts steep turn west wet whether
One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.
data expect fourth increase last month percent rose spending suggest
The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,