Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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The rise in (confidence) is presumably a reflection of the rebound in stock prices and -- though to a lesser extent -- the further cuts in interest rates,
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The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,
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Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
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We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,
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As far as we can tell, confidence now seems to have run a bit ahead of the improvement in the stock market, and the failure of the Nasdaq and Dow to make further progress in recent weeks makes it doubtful that confidence will continue to rise at the May pace. The sharp rise in unemployment is likely to become a negative factor, too.
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This is a significant decline in confidence, ... Presumably the combination of higher interest rates and stagnant stock prices lies behind the moves, but the key point is that the steady rise in recent months has abruptly begun to reverse.
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After the attack on Pearl Harbor, the New York stock market fell 5 percent over two days. As the United States mobilized and expressed its resolve in the ensuing days, the stock market came back.
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The Fed is now explicitly conducting monetary policy with the aim of supporting stock prices,
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The Fed can and will be much more of an active player in the stock market until it turns the corner,
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The drop in stock prices is no excuse to beginning cutting rates, as some in the market desperately want to believe, ... Given where oil prices are and given what the fundamentals still suggest, I don't see the Fed doing anything for the time being.
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The improvement in the stock market is allowing the hugely favorable monetary and fiscal environment to do its work -- just as it was in the spring before the stock market melted down,
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We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
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We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
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It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.