Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
buyers homes housing remains supply unable
Supply remains tight; buyers may have been unable to find the homes they want where they want them. Housing will not fold.
accept activity aftermath fell housing immediate optimistic relatively remain
We remain relatively optimistic about the housing market, but we do accept that activity fell sharply in the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11,
business consumer market objective remain sentiment simply stock support until view
We remain of the view that the Fed's near-term objective is simply to support the stock market until consumer and business sentiment improves,
remain soft spots survey
The only soft spots in the survey remain inventories and employment, but they will recover.
aloud available beginning bigger committee elevated forecast growth guard headline inflation labor neutral pool position rate remain shifting sign slower tight
This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.
add fourth low quarter remain third
Inventories remain very low and will add to third quarter and fourth quarter growth, too.
activity begun close couple current early expect levels next remain starts though year
By early next year we expect starts to have begun to decline, though activity can probably remain close to current levels for another couple of months,
claims current expect percent rate remain
If claims remain at their current level, we could expect the unemployment rate to be down to 4 percent or so by mid-summer.
anywhere claims labor market near remain send signal strong
If claims remain anywhere near this week's level, they will send a very strong signal that the labor market is tightening.
clearly hike november rates remain remarks rise signal though view
The chairman's remarks clearly signal rates will rise this month, though we remain of the view that a November hike is not yet a done deal.
couple expect fall gas huge latest months next prices
We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.
couple data expect further gains gasoline growth months next order quarter signal wake
We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.
cannot confidence confident drop helpful job june marked market start tight
It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.
again close confidence cycle data higher home interest last leave reported rise sales sit together tone week
These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.