Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
change clear news tone
There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.
argue danger ready trend
We think the trend in layoff is downwards, ... but we're not yet ready to argue that all the danger has passed.
data relief supports
We think the relief is temporary; no other data supports the slowdown story,
chance data few good home next sales seriously starts worst
We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading.
dips further good less line news state stock
The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,
alone bit change good likely news room slow today
With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.
faces fed forward growth happen looking question wake
The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?
claims consistent current falling flat labor level low numbers relief rising sight
Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.
bit risen vulnerable
Expectations had risen a bit too far, too fast, and were vulnerable to a correction; this is it.
consistent good indicator leading modest push spending stocks stronger
Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
guess negative next
Next month, payrolls will plunge. Our guess is negative 500,000.
evidence guaranteed recession though
It's not guaranteed that we're going to get a recession now, though I have to say that the evidence from NAPM is not encouraging,
likely looking sharp
It's looking more likely ... that we're going to get a sharp contraction.
economy expect housing lead obvious patience sustained
Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue.