Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
alone clearly fed good inflation numbers rates rise rising spring stop view
Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.
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Claims have now been essentially static for three months, so even if the latest declines turn out to be unsustainable, the data will still show that the trend is no longer rising rapidly, and may not be rising at all, ... It looks like the worst of the worst is now over in the labor market.
claims fell initial job losses wave
Claims fell because the initial wave of job losses after Sept. 11th is fading.
claims data good indicator leading rate suggest
Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.
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His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
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Behind the enormous distortions caused by the hurricanes, the underlying state of the labor market has continued to improve.
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Skeptics will argue this is just a post-war bounce that won't last, but we disagree, ... The ISM was in the mid-50s before the war, thanks to very loose policy, and there's no reason why it can't return to those levels very soon. The Fed does not need to ease again.
becoming evidence industrial point sector start turning
Every turning point has to start somewhere, and the evidence on the industrial sector is becoming overwhelming.
labor market
The labor market is tightening, but the tightening is not accelerating.
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The message from these claims numbers is strong and clear. The labor market is extremely tight.
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The ISM survey clearly promises much bigger increases in production ahead, but for now the official data are lagging the survey a bit,
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The Fed is now explicitly conducting monetary policy with the aim of supporting stock prices,
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The Fed is nearly done. The U.S. economy is coming back.
almost begun fed higher interest markets prepare
The Fed has begun to prepare the markets for higher interest rates, ... almost balanced.