Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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Katrina and Rita effects still linger, though they are fading, ... Claims will likely rise next week as the full effects of Wilma hit, but the downward trend is very clear.
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It is just too soon to be sure that the second-quarter slowdown will be sustained, ... The level of consumer confidence is still consistent with 5 percent spending growth.
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It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own.
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It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend,
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Overall, this is not too bad a report, but clearly there's some pressure in some sectors.
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Overall, this is a very robust report. There was a big upward revision to November orders excluding transportation, to a gain of 0.6% from down 0.6%.
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Overall, the survey is still very strong, but we hoped for a bit better. A further decline next month would be a bit disconcerting, but there is no reason to expect that.
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Overall, the recent sales data appear to point to a renewed upturn in spending.
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Overall, the labor market is improving, but progress is still slow,
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Overall, still quite strong, but a bit disconcerting nonetheless.
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Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.
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Our view is that home sales will slide through the summer, dragging housing starts down into the fall. But this is still no more than a forecast; mortgage applications are still very strong.
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Output will not immediately accelerate to the pace suggested by the orders numbers ... because companies are still aggressively running down inventory.
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Our measure of core sales, which excludes autos, gas and food, rose a pitiful 0.1 percent, the worst performance since April and impossible to square with Mr. Greenspan's assertion last week that the economy is regaining traction,