Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.
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The question the Fed now faces is what will happen to growth looking forward in the wake of a 75-basis-point tightening?
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This will doubtless shock the markets, and makes an October rate cut more likely, but it does not change the outlook for a near-term recovery, ... Falling employment, rising unemployment lag activity. These numbers reflect the second quarter economic stall.
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There is no reason yet to expect a real weakening in sales.
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The price index was up, ... This reflects the rise in oil prices and not much else, but that won't stop doom-mongers worrying about it. In short, the report shows manufacturing is still on track.
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The only soft spots in the survey remain inventories and employment, but they will recover.
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There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.
anytime existing homes housing lack market means mortgage prices quickly rates rise sales sign simply supply turned
There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down, ... The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.
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There is at least some light at the end of the tunnel, but unfortunately it is still a long way off,
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The pattern in claims in recent months is strikingly similar to 1990 -- a long slow climb and then a sudden acceleration as layoffs accelerated,
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This strongly suggests that core finished goods' prices will slow over the next few months,
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Ignore the ISM at your peril, ... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer.
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We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.
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There is a specific reference in February to 'the pace of policy moves at upcoming meetings ... would depend on incoming data', suggesting a degree of potential flexibility that was absent from the December minutes,