Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
clearly comfort
Clearly there is nothing here at all to comfort the Fed.
coming great inflation labor prompt talk threat
Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.
change driving fed inflation looks report underlying
Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.
alone clearly fed good inflation numbers rates rise rising spring stop view
Clearly good numbers, reinforcing the Fed view that much of the spring rise in inflation was 'transitory' - but good CPI numbers alone will not stop rates rising slowly.
claims data declines labor latest longer looks rising static three trend turn worst
Claims have now been essentially static for three months, so even if the latest declines turn out to be unsustainable, the data will still show that the trend is no longer rising rapidly, and may not be rising at all, ... It looks like the worst of the worst is now over in the labor market.
claims fell initial job losses wave
Claims fell because the initial wave of job losses after Sept. 11th is fading.
claims data good indicator leading rate suggest
Claims are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate; these data suggest the rate will be nudging 4% by mid-summer.
cyclical element explosion intentions leaves market next none open recent risk wiser
His conclusion, in essence, is that much of the productivity explosion of recent years is permanent, but there is a risk that there is significant cyclical element too. Unfortunately, this leaves us none the wiser as to his intentions at the next (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting.
behind caused continued enormous labor market state underlying
Behind the enormous distortions caused by the hurricanes, the underlying state of the labor market has continued to improve.
add fourth low quarter remain third
Inventories remain very low and will add to third quarter and fourth quarter growth, too.
activity begun close couple current early expect levels next remain starts though year
By early next year we expect starts to have begun to decline, though activity can probably remain close to current levels for another couple of months,
depress higher interest loss people
If sharply higher interest rates, and a plunging Nasdaq make people more optimistic, we are at a loss to know what it will take to depress confidence,
consumer february pace percent rises since spending
If real spending rises at this pace in February and March, consumer spending will rise just 2.3 percent for the quarter, the softest since Q2 1997,
bit fed leave less markets perhaps pushing report
This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.