Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
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The bottom line is that a one-month decline in this measure does not reverse the clear, firm upward trend.
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The bottom line here is that the month-to-month volatility in the durable orders data is such that the true information content in a single report is very small -- there's just too much noise.
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The bottom line here is that industry is doing well.
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The big question now is whether the ISM survey will follow the Philly down and dip below 50,
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Auto sales did not fall as far as the unit sales numbers suggested. This means there'll probably be a catch-up -- downwards -- next month.
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This is a welcome surprise; the trend in claims in recent weeks has been strongly upwards.
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This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.
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This is a significant decline in confidence, ... Presumably the combination of higher interest rates and stagnant stock prices lies behind the moves, but the key point is that the steady rise in recent months has abruptly begun to reverse.
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This is great news. These are very helpful numbers to those -- including us -- who think the Fed will not raise rates next month.
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This is a surprise but it cannot last. We think the other elements of the report give a better indication of the strength of the market, with supply of single-family homes up to 5.3 months, compared to just 4.0 a year ago. Price gains have slowed to 7.8 percent year-on-year, down from 10.4 percent in Feb and a 19-month low. Much lower sales will follow.
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This is as upbeat a testimony as could reasonably have been hoped for.
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This is a strong report: Manufacturing output has strengthened markedly in the past two months, following a lackluster showing in February.
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This is the first official acknowledgment that the economy is beginning to improve.
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This is slightly baffling, given that existing home sales have been strengthening, ... It may be a reflection of caution on the part of builders, who have been reluctant to keep pace with sales because of fear the market strength will not last.