Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
light
There is at least some light at the end of the tunnel, but unfortunately it is still a long way off,
core few finished next prices slow strongly
This strongly suggests that core finished goods' prices will slow over the next few months,
claims climb layoffs months pattern recent similar slow sudden
The pattern in claims in recent months is strikingly similar to 1990 -- a long slow climb and then a sudden acceleration as layoffs accelerated,
companies consumers demand doom expect negative news notion scale truth
We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.
begun believed claims genuinely level peaked underlying
We believed the underlying level of claims peaked in the spring. This suggests that they may now genuinely have begun to decline.
data expect fourth increase last month percent rose spending suggest
The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,
confirm cost data expected generating labor market percent pressures sort
The data confirm that the labor market is still not generating the sort of cost pressures many analysts expected with 4 percent unemployment.
begins coast demand early elsewhere expect few gulf homes huge months next permits rise sign starts strengthen
Over the next few months we expect starts to strengthen as reconstruction begins on the Gulf Coast - the rise in permits may be an early sign - but elsewhere starts still need to lag sales. Demand is still huge but there are too many new homes for sale.
aircraft core eventually forecast goods impact oil prices spike trade undone
Our forecast was undone by two factors. The impact of the post-Katrina spike in oil prices is lingering; it will eventually fade. Second, trade in goods ex-oil and aircraft -- core -- deteriorated again.
drop employment growth slowing strongly suggest trend
they strongly suggest that the trend in employment growth is slowing hard. A big drop in May payrolls may be in the cards.
bad change good last news overall trade worst
At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.
dip november numbers retail sales small surprised
At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.
corporate domestic gross implies percent product recovery strong survey
A strong U.S. corporate recovery is brewing right now -- this survey implies 4 percent gross domestic product growth,
cards drop headline hugely retail
A big headline drop was always in the cards after the weather-assisted surge in January, which hugely boosted retail activity.