Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
cards drop headline hugely retail
A big headline drop was always in the cards after the weather-assisted surge in January, which hugely boosted retail activity.
clearer easter havoc hope plays
A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,
august chance increasing likely numbers rate seems seen
It seems likely that these numbers will be seen as significantly increasing the chance of an August rate hike.
comment fed future greenspan inflation rates recovery until wait
There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.
asia crisis higher industrial orders recovers report signs
The report suggests that industrial orders are trending higher as manufacturing recovers from the Asia crisis, ... There are no real signs of a slowdown.
dip ensure expect home housing low lower mortgage quarter rates rebound recession reflects renewed sales sector strength
The renewed strength in home sales reflects lower mortgage rates; we expect rates to dip to a 14-month low this week. The housing rebound will ensure construction sector strength in the first quarter of 2001. No recession here.
evidence guaranteed recession though
It's not guaranteed that we're going to get a recession now, though I have to say that the evidence from NAPM is not encouraging,
likely looking sharp
It's looking more likely ... that we're going to get a sharp contraction.
adjusted chance decline fully good industrial sector soon steep
It it too soon to be sure, but we think there is a good chance that the industrial sector has now fully adjusted to the summer's steep decline in confidence.
adverse business claims effects late quick recovery requires steep surely thanks trend underlying work
There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.
mark soon start
This may mark the start of an upturn in exports, but it's too soon to be sure.
consistent level
This level of the ISM is not consistent with recession,
adding growth jump lift percent quarter second
This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations. We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.
call early july means might output report slump stability worst
It is still too early to call the end of the manufacturing slump because the stability of July output might be little more than a seasonal effect, ... this report probably means the worst is over.