Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
affect housing next retail sales spring
Eventually, the housing slowdown will affect retail sales too, but that is probably a story for the spring of next year, at the earliest.
again analysis center labor market moved signals stage
It signals that the labor market has now moved again to center stage in the Fed's analysis and policymaking process.
auto awful held largely october rebound rose sales spending
Nominal spending was held down by a 0.4% energy-induced plunge in the PCE deflator, so real spending rose a hefty 0.7%. A rebound in auto sales after the awful October was largely responsible for this.
clearly hugely pointing vigorous
Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.
adjusted chance decline fully good industrial sector soon steep
It it too soon to be sure, but we think there is a good chance that the industrial sector has now fully adjusted to the summer's steep decline in confidence.
august chance increasing likely numbers rate seems seen
It seems likely that these numbers will be seen as significantly increasing the chance of an August rate hike.
ability accomplish affect damage drastic finances profoundly public reforms security social state
It will profoundly damage Bush's ability to accomplish his legislative goals, ... drastic reforms of Social Security and Medicare, which would affect the state of public finances in the long run.
collapse fed gathering housing wage
The wage story is gathering real momentum. The Fed is going to 5%, and more if housing does not collapse by mid-year.
fed gathering wage wonder
The wage story is gathering momentum. No wonder the Fed is concerned.
buyers homes housing remains supply unable
Supply remains tight; buyers may have been unable to find the homes they want where they want them. Housing will not fold.
fed funds low percent rate seems start thinking
It now seems appropriate to start thinking about a fed funds rate as low as 4 percent by the summer.
above appears claims continuing higher last layoffs level means per rapid time trend
It now appears that the trend in jobless claims is stabilizing at about 400,000 per week, ... This is well above the trend level at this time last year, but it is no higher than in the spring. This means that layoffs are continuing at a rapid pace, but they are not accelerating.
call early july means might output report slump stability worst
It is still too early to call the end of the manufacturing slump because the stability of July output might be little more than a seasonal effect, ... this report probably means the worst is over.
blame core gas sales softness soon tempting
It is tempting to blame the softness of core sales on the surge in gas prices, but we think it is too soon for that.