Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
consistent gathering industrial looks recovery report stronger
This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,
report stronger
This report is much stronger than it first appears.
asian continuing exactly fed rebound report
This report indicates manufacturing is continuing to rebound from the Asian crisis, which is exactly what the Fed expects.
both change good growth lifts point quarter report starting
This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,
report
This report augurs very well for the holidays.
october rebound signal since strong sustained
The rebound in expectations since October is still big enough to signal strong first-quarter consumption, but not a sustained boom.
change clear news tone
There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.
argue danger ready trend
We think the trend in layoff is downwards, ... but we're not yet ready to argue that all the danger has passed.
data relief supports
We think the relief is temporary; no other data supports the slowdown story,
chance data few good home next sales seriously starts worst
We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading.
claims consistent current falling flat labor level low numbers relief rising sight
Unfortunately, at current levels, and coupled with the extraordinarily low level of labor demand, the claims numbers are still consistent with flat or falling payrolls and a rising unemployment rate. There's no real relief in sight here yet.
bit risen vulnerable
Expectations had risen a bit too far, too fast, and were vulnerable to a correction; this is it.
consistent good indicator leading modest push spending stocks stronger
Expectations are a leading indicator and are consistent with modest spending gains. Stronger stocks will push the index up further, and soon. This is a good report.
dips further good less line news state stock
The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,