Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
given guide latter national perfect rarely regional relative send strength
This is something of a surprise, given the relative strength of most of the regional surveys. The latter are not always a perfect guide to the national ISM but they rarely send such a clear, but wrong, signal.
begin change data fed force otherwise soon
The upcoming data will soon enough force the Fed to change its stance, otherwise it will begin to look ridiculous,
fed looking reason
This does not read like a Fed where everyone is looking for a reason to stop.
claims dip measured moving prove rising turn unlikely
This dip in claims is unlikely to prove significant. The trend, measured by the four-week moving average, is still rising after its turn of-the-year decline.
confidence consumers responses strength
Strength is broad-based, confirming that what consumers do can be very different to their responses to confidence surveys.
core deficit flat november past seems trend
November will be better, but the past year's flat trend in the core deficit seems to be breaking.
attack came expressed fell market pearl percent resolve states stock united york
After the attack on Pearl Harbor, the New York stock market fell 5 percent over two days. As the United States mobilized and expressed its resolve in the ensuing days, the stock market came back.
both brief chain change either huge maybe mystery numbers pointed revised sales square store
The mystery is how to square with this with both the Redbook and Bloomberg chain store sales surveys, which pointed to a huge gain, ... Maybe it will come in March, or today's numbers will be revised up. Either way, this is a brief diversion, not a change of course.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
couple expect good ground guide january meantime months rough seems though
After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02, ... This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.
core four months report straight
After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief.
further gain increase markets recent reflects requires
This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,
beginning improvement labor market start though
It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.
basic decay guess recovery sufficient upset york
Our guess now is that there will be some incremental decay of consumers' expectations, especially in the New York area, but it will not be sufficient to upset our basic recovery story,