Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
bar clearly downside further looking risks
Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,
march rate signal word
He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike.
benefits claims extended filing flow hoped people pushing slow towards trend underlying
We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,
biggest certainly convinced costs drop far fastest greenspan growth happens improvement labor matter numbers rates seven shouting unit worth
With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.
fully higher leap notable oil prices reflection simply
Most notable was the leap in the prices-paid index, ... this is simply a reflection of higher oil prices but it may not have been fully anticipated in the markets.
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Just about everyone who buys a house uses a mortgage, so a sustained drop in mortgage demand tells you where home sales are going, regardless of the current sales data.
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July sales always looked unsustainably high relative to the level of mortgage applications so a correction was due. This drop in sales does not mark the start of a sustained weakening.
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It is disappointing in the wake of the huge rise in the Empire State survey -- the indexes are usually at similar levels,
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Manufacturers are still miserable, and output will keep falling for some time, but they can now see light at the end of the tunnel, ... They are working off their excess inventory ... and are now hopeful of stronger orders by the year-end.
beginning improvement labor market start though
It is beginning to look as though there has been a real improvement in the labor market at the start of this year.
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We think confidence will rebound next month, but in the meantime the odds surely now favor a Fed ease next week,
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We doubt this can be sustained as the reality of $2.60- plus sinks in. For now, though, it looks good.
ahead doubt growth hike mean points rate report slower
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,
ahead doubt growth hike mean points rate report slower
We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead -- but it does mean no rate hike on the 22nd.