Ethan Harris
Ethan Harris
average bills bulk burden confidence consumer cut debt driver growth leaving less past paying people picking several slow taken tax truth wage
Everyone is all zeroed in on the consumer now, but the truth is that the consumer isn't the driver now. Confidence is picking up, but still at average levels. Wage growth is slow and the bulk of the tax cut is already in place. Finally, with all the debt people have taken out over the past several years the burden of paying monthly bills is leaving less for discretionary spending.
basic consumer medium near ok risk term
The basic story of the consumer is that he's OK in the near term and at risk in the medium term.
ahead almost consumer continue effects energy pressure slow somewhat spending vulnerable year
The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.
coming consumer likely slow spending
It's very likely consumer spending will slow down significantly in coming months.
approach cautious consumer fed handle higher interest medicine nurtured patient recovery shock worried
The Fed is going to take a cautious approach (because) they're worried about how the consumer will handle higher interest rates, ... We've had recovery nurtured on super-low interest rates. They don't want to shock the patient by withdrawing the medicine too quickly.
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
clearly consumer economy growth operating percent recovery talking
You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.
benefits consumers economic job labor market reasons recovery spend sustain
Ultimately, for the economic recovery to sustain itself, we have to see the labor market improve. As the tax-cut benefits fade, consumers will look for more fundamental reasons to spend money, and there will have to be some job growth.
alone consumer damaged higher oil people prices shocks tax worrying
In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.
affect consume demand economy-and-economics effect electrical industrial natural obvious output people places utility
But the obvious effect is on utility consumption, which will affect industrial output in the economy. People consume more electricity, that places more demand on natural gas, coal, power, and electrical systems.
adjusted bring consumer impact rates rising slowing spending tremendous
Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.
carry consumer economy financial improvement labor looks market terms trying view whether worries
We've been trying to see whether the improvement of the economy and financial market will carry the day in terms of consumer confidence, or if worries about labor will dominate. It looks like the 'glass-half-full' view is winning.
budget china congress course gradual growth happen ideal less none percent pressure three works
In an ideal world, three simultaneous gradual adjustments would happen. The U.S. eliminates the budget deficit, China revalues by 30 percent and China works to rebalance growth more to consumption and less to exports. Of course none of this will happen and the pressure for protectionism from Congress grows.
friendly inflation major signals warning
It's not as friendly as some of the other inflation numbers, but it's just one indicator. We have no inflation warning signals from any of the other major inflation indicators.