Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
bit consumer effect equity higher markets positively react turn wealth
As the equity markets react positively to this change, we get a bit of a positive wealth effect which in turn should induce higher consumer spending.
accept bit consumer drives enter notion quarter question realistic sales turn
There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.
claims close coming corner ignore labor market trend turning
We can't ignore the trend -- jobless claims have been coming down. We're at least close to turning the corner on the labor market front.
continue dollar further reduction ship suspicion turning until value
My suspicion is the value of the dollar has to continue to weaken. Until we see further reduction in the value of the dollar, we won't be turning the ship around.
bit housing mortgage precisely rates start turn
Mortgage rates will put a little bit of a brake on housing activity, ... but it may come precisely as other sectors start to turn around.
declare good labor market news report says strong turning
This report is good news because it says the labor market is turning the corner, but it's still not strong enough to declare victory.
balanced best chance coming economy moderate recovery since turning
This is an economy coming back, but it's going to be a moderate recovery. But we should not despair, since a balanced recovery has the best chance of turning into a longer-lasting recovery.
consumer demand downward expect faster growing higher hopeful labor linger peak percent pressure sort turn
If you have productivity growing faster than the economy, how can you expect demand for labor to be all that strong? I'm still hopeful that unemployment won't go much higher than 6.2 percent or 6.3 percent, but where we'll peak is not as important as when we turn around. If we sort of linger at 6.2 percent, that will put some downward pressure on consumer spending.
housing obviously spells starting trouble turning
If housing is starting to weaken and manufacturing is not turning around, obviously it spells trouble for the economy.
components core headline number running strip telling turning volatile
The headline number is encouraging, but if you strip out the volatile components and look at core growth, it's telling you we're turning the corner, but we're not running around the corner.
ask consumers decline economy funds mortgage reliable source turning
You've got to ask yourself, will we have another 100-to-150 basis-point decline in mortgage rates? ... I would say that's a stretch, so it's not going to be a reliable source of funds for consumers -- we'll need to see the economy turning around.
circumstance early fed lows move moving prepared rates require seen since
What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
claims confirm fact improve notion numbers sometime
These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.