Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Our analysis suggests the pace of consumer spending is likely to slow in the near-term future,
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Yes, the economy was slow and would have come within a hair's distance of a recession. But Sept. 11 was the fatal blow to the economy this year. That probably will be the most important market and economic event of the year.
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What is giving us protection is all the global competition that we have. That is preventing companies from passing on most of the costs. Even though productivity has been slowing down, it's still fairly significant.
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It's unreasonable to expect that the information we have so far could justify another cut right now. We need to see more evidence the economy is headed for much slower growth in the months ahead.
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This gives the Fed license to continue executing monetary policy. If they see any signs of slow growth in employment, industrial production, or retail sales, they certainly have the green light to make another cut. They have total flexibility to do whatever it takes to prevent a recession.
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I think the risk is the downside, not the upside, ... I think the markets are fairly nervous about the prospects for growth. They're going to be dissecting the number. If we have slower than expected consumer spending and stronger than expected inventory growth, that's not going to bode well for the next quarter or so.
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I think these numbers have the potential to drive the Fed to do an inter-meeting cut. The economy is slowing down, and I think we'll see more of this before it's over.
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The labor market seems to be improving, but still at such slow pace, it's probably too early to start celebrating.
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The Fed is fully aware that a slowly recovering economy needs to be nursed carefully back to health before the doctor sends the patient home.
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For the equity market, this is somewhat good news because certainly (the report) is an important button for the Federal Reserve to see if its policies are working and that housing is slowing down, as it would be expected to do so, with all the hikes in short-term interest rates.
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The unemployment rate is picking up, but it's picking up at a very slow pace,
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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These claims numbers confirm the notion that things may improve sometime in the future. The fact that we didn't go over 400,000 was very encouraging.