Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
against argument betting buying cars clearly consumer consumers figures prove retail sales tears
The retail sales figures clearly prove that betting against the consumer is a sucker's bet. Not surprisingly, the ex-auto figure on retail sales tears down the argument that consumers are only buying cars and houses.
balance discourage economy fed numbers retail risk sales telling thinking toward
These numbers are essentially telling us that retail sales were artificially boosted by zero-percent financing. These numbers are not going to do anything to discourage the Fed from thinking that the balance of risk in the economy is toward weakness.
builders canary clue coal market move price sales
The new-home sales market is the canary in the coal mine. Builders have a better clue as to what the right price is to move a house.
clear crystal low mortgage purchase sales starting supporting taken
We see the slowdown crystal clear in the MBA purchase index, and it's starting to show up in monthly sales data. The one thing that was supporting the market, low mortgage rates, is being taken away.
accept bit consumer drives enter notion quarter question realistic sales turn
There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.
likely overall remain sales somewhat total
The overall total of nominal sales is likely to remain somewhat weak.
dominating gain generally headline housing industrial influenced knows namely number reports retail sales starts variable volatile wide
The outsized gain in housing starts was influenced by the same variable dominating most of the other headline stats like the retail sales and industrial production, namely weather. Everyone knows that housing starts is a volatile number that generally reports wide swings.
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It confirms the belief that the weakness in retail sales was the result of a bunker mentality in the wake of the terrible events of Sept. 11.
auto despite disappear fact fell happen incentives likely limited question raises sales
I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
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Real new home sale prices and existing-home sale prices have been rising very sharply. When that starts to give way and we don't have the equity market picking up where housing left off, that's another reason the economic expansion will be gradual.
demise economic existing home jump moderate recovery sales somewhat surprise talk widespread
With the surprise jump in new home sales and the outsized rise in existing home sales, we now see that widespread talk of the demise of our moderate economic recovery has been somewhat exaggerated.
assume existing housing ignore market mistake sales weakness
The housing market is resilient, still going strong, but it would be a mistake to ignore the weakness in existing sales and assume everything is copasetic.
federal pressures react reserve starting
Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
cannot capital carry consumers economy far hope knows provides recovery report spending
Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.