Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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As the equity markets react positively to this change, we get a bit of a positive wealth effect which in turn should induce higher consumer spending.
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The terrible, devastating effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, when we see those things on TV, we know we don't feel as good about our country or even about ourselves.
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When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.
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This report was very encouraging. It gives us stronger employment growth than the market was expecting while none of negative side effects of economic growth are present, such as higher inflationary pressure from wages.
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I think this is the best of all possible worlds for the Fed. They'd like to see the economic expansion sustained without the side effect of higher inflationary pressure from wages.
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While an economy is limping during the earliest or first stage of an expansion -- this is where we are -- the ability to pass on the effects of higher input prices like energy is quite limited. But as soon as the economy begins to gain traction, more of these prices can be passed on.
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Inflationary pressures are starting to percolate --and the Federal Reserve is going to react to this.
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Everyone knows that consumers cannot carry the economy indefinitely on their own, and this report provides some hope that the long-awaited capital spending recovery may not be too far off.
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The bidding fever that was present a year or so ago has all but disappeared, and that's another sign that this market is slowing.
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The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.
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The best way to describe this report is 'holy cow,' ... This is a great report. We have Alan Greenspan a little bit worried about inflation and certainly the financial markets will realize that those worries certainly continue to prove to be unfounded.
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The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
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The auction also showed that foreign appetite for our securities remain voracious, which in itself is another positive sign.
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The retail sales figures clearly prove that betting against the consumer is a sucker's bet. Not surprisingly, the ex-auto figure on retail sales tears down the argument that consumers are only buying cars and houses.