Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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The recovery of 2002 looks poised to mirror the recovery of a decade ago, with a moderate economic and earnings recovery following a short and shallow recession.
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When we see a change in payrolls that is dominated by a glitch in the seasonal factor, no change in average hourly earnings and only a small gain in the length in the average workweek, we know that the message is encouraging but not exhilarating,
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The pace of average hourly earnings continues to rise at just a tepid pace leading me to believe that this overall report is a very monetary policy-friendly report.
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The problem was that we had earnings growing at a high multiple of economic activity, and that wasn't right. There was a considerable amount of pressure for companies to exaggerate economic activity, but the economy was doing just fine.
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The average hourly earnings figures were truly the spoiler of this report, ... It tells us that the Fed may now have to start becoming more vigilant about upcoming price pressures.
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That's not as great as 2003 earnings growth, but still positive.
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Corporate earnings growth is slowing. Earnings might be growing at 9 to 10 percent, and that's still impressive. But they're going in the wrong direction.
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This will certainly heat up the debate at the central bank,
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This shows the labor market in not overheated. And you can see that in, yes, not a lot of people are getting raises.
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When you listen to Greenspan's speech, you hear a fear about the sustainability of economic growth and no inflation pressures. Guess what that spells? Lower interest rates and postponing a return to higher rates, to insure the sustainability of growth.
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When you have a long road to travel, you don't take too many breaks. You just keep on going. We're one or two bad numbers away from reassessment of Fed policy, but we're not there yet. Yes, this number is weak, and yes, it's disappointing, but there are some rays of hope in here.
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When one looks at the MBA data that reveal that applications for the purchases of new homes are down 7.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, it is not hard to see that the gain reported this month is not a sustainable trend.
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We will eventually see the negative impact of rising rates -- we can't dodge that bullet -- but doesn't usually happen at the beginning of the cycle. I'm not sure we will continue to see the market beating expectations by these margins, but I don't see the market collapsing in the next month or so.
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We will continue on this jobless path, where we're not creating enough jobs to make a real difference to the economy, for at least another six to nine months.