Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Saying that higher oil prices have not increased the risk of recession or serious economic slowdown is clearly not the same thing as saying that they have not had an impact.
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We have almost 500,000 people in the New Orleans area and you have a less than 80,000 increase in claims. We are going to have a lot more than that. Clearly a lot of people can't yet file claims.
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Today's Fed rate cut and directive clearly reflects the fact that the Fed is coming to the end of its rainbow and therefore wants to ensure that it still can convince financial markets that it still has further flexibility to do more if it needs to.
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Given that we import more than 50 percent of our oil consumption from abroad, it is clear that as these prices rise, we are essentially transferring net wealth from U.S. consumers to oil producers that are mostly located overseas.
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Futures are down this morning, feeling the pressure of Texas Instruments' weak forecast. Now it is clear that growth is certainly going to slow. The question is, by how much?
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We see the slowdown crystal clear in the MBA purchase index, and it's starting to show up in monthly sales data. The one thing that was supporting the market, low mortgage rates, is being taken away.
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This puts to rest any question of whether or not we're going to have an explosive recovery. We're clearly not.
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Anything that causes people to spend more time thinking about what they do will clearly have an impact on productivity. The good news is this is not a permanent situation -- these things have a way of clearing themselves up. But will it be completely inconsequential? I don't think so.
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This clearly shows that relying on the household survey's employment measure as a barometer of labor market conditions is not only risky, but also an incorrect assumption,
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The momentum going into 2006 is clearly healthy. We will be able to withstand weaker growth for the rest of the quarter and almost not miss a heart beat.
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I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
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I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.
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Clearly when you speak of an economic slowdown, you usually talk of an unemployment rate that is much, much higher. This environment is just not right for a recession,
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clear evidence that this sector will not continue rising forever.