Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
confirmed economy falling notion recession
Certainly, we see some encouragement. We see an economy that's still weak... but not falling off the cliff. The notion that we're not going to have a recession is confirmed by these numbers.
buyers carrying costs holding prices properties six spot sweet three
Buyers are going to be in a sweet spot in about three to six months. The speculators who are still holding properties will be panicking by then as their carrying costs mount. It won't be a bloodbath, but that's when prices should be at their lowest.
act calendar economic expect financial markets near next panic reassuring recovery remain revealing risks several telling towards weakness weighed willing within
By telling us that the risks are more heavily weighed towards weakness while simultaneously stating that they expect an economic recovery within the next several calendar quarters, they are revealing that they remain willing to act if they need to while also reassuring financial markets that there is no need for panic over the near term.
jobs last moment months quarter saw similar third three
For the moment the third quarter is probably going to be similar to what we saw the last three months -- probably between 250,000 to 300,000 new jobs every month,
market
For the moment, the market is celebrating because the announcement removes uncertainty.
button certainly equity expected federal good hikes housing interest news policies reserve slowing somewhat
For the equity market, this is somewhat good news because certainly (the report) is an important button for the Federal Reserve to see if its policies are working and that housing is slowing down, as it would be expected to do so, with all the hikes in short-term interest rates.
housing obviously spells starting trouble turning
If housing is starting to weaken and manufacturing is not turning around, obviously it spells trouble for the economy.
danger economic federal numbers pause raise rates recovery reserve situation statistics surprise three yes
I don't think the recovery is in danger. But I think what we have here is a situation where the Federal Reserve will probably look at the numbers a lot more closely. If we see another two or three economic statistics that surprise us, yes the Fed can pause and not raise rates in August.
fed feels guarantees pause report stand
I don't think this report guarantees a pause, but it doesn't stand in the way of a pause if the Fed feels it's something they should look at.
basically coming data fears growth soft
The fears we had that growth was pretty soft and fungible are basically coming out; that's what the data are showing.
argue borrowing capacity consumer excess higher income ratio side
The consumer credit-to-disposable income ratio is much higher than it was in the '50s, so you can't argue that there is as much excess capacity on the borrowing side as there was in the '50s,
along core engine federal hike humming interest june keeps looks rate reserve
The core (inflation measure), while it's up, still looks very contained. This just keeps the Federal Reserve interest rate hike engine humming along after June 30.
ability diverse higher investing lower markets move offers opportunity portfolio rate return
International investing offers the opportunity for diversification. What you want in a diverse portfolio is the ability to have some markets move differently from other markets. You get a much higher rate of return with lower risk.
affected jobs loss
The GDP doesn't take into consideration loss of wealth, ... It's affected by jobs and productivity.