Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
durable gain goods heels number previous
The much stronger-than-expected durable goods number is significant because it comes on the heels of a sizable gain the previous month,
conditions energy labor market movement prices seen
The movement in labor market conditions is a lot more important than the movement in energy prices. Only when labor market conditions are deteriorating have we historically seen that energy prices have an impact.
declining deficit economic growth loss slight
A declining deficit may be signaling a slight loss of economic growth momentum.
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Additionally, it was encouraging to see a small increase in the length of the work week, which usually serves as a leading indicator of future employment growth.
became danger dichotomy disconnect economy greatest huge positive sounds
There's a danger in being too positive, of there being a huge disconnect between how positive a policy-maker sounds and what the economy is doing. That was probably one of O'Neill's greatest shortfalls -- the dichotomy became too wide.
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The resilient consumer and an attempt by businesses to jump-start and keep the economy going -- the combination of those two forces gave us a bounce-back in economic activity.
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The resiliency of the consumer is very impressive in the wake of so many terror warnings. One cautionary note is that, moving forward, these numbers may soften, as those warnings are still coming.
accept bit consumer drives enter notion quarter question realistic sales turn
There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.
higher housing mortgage question rates shine
There's no question these higher mortgage rates will take some of the shine off the resiliency in the housing market,
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There's no question the recovery is taking longer than people thought. People thought the economy would pick up very quickly and that we would have a typical garden variety economic recovery. That's not the case, but the good news is it is a recovery. You can't ask for more than that.
consumer happening helping hurt market performance question stock
There's no question that what's happening in the stock market is going to hurt consumer spending. The only thing helping us is the performance of housing.
labor market mind question
There's no question in my mind that the labor market is improving.
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The trade deficit coming in a bit wider suggests growth is going to be a lot slower. It throws more support on the notion that there is more uncertainty in the short run. But that's premature speculation.
lower prepared sign tells
I still don't think they'll lower rates, but this tells me they're prepared to lower them at the first sign of trouble.