Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
basis continuing greenspan hiking improved interest labor market months peak rate sure waited
Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.
bet cut expect report sometime sure
Had this report showed another plunge in confidence, then I think it would have been a sure bet to expect another cut sometime in April,
economic falling fiscal monetary recovery strong support sure value
Clearly, the economic fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the falling value of the dollar, support a recovery. What we're not sure of is how strong the recovery is going to be.
revision sure surprised
I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.
argue bend dollar game intended japanese orderly sure suspect trend trying
The Japanese would argue that they never really intended to bend the trend of the dollar; they were just trying to make sure the dollar depreciated gradually, in an orderly fashion, ... I suspect that's still their game plan.
distinct interest pushing rates
Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,
argentina compared economy mexico potential relatively small
Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.
businesses coming continued employment gains hiring increase maintain might primarily reasons seeing temporary trying
Employment gains really haven't come from full-time workers. They're coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, ... Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of the reasons why we're seeing an increase in continued claims.
confidence consistent consumers east employment gains impact market michigan middle overall picture report retail rising sales situation slower stock taking turmoil
Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.
economy seems
Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,
economy ensure fed fuel inflation left measures preventive taking
There's so much liquidity in the economy right now that, left alone, it could become fuel for inflation, ... I can see the Fed taking preventive measures to ensure inflation doesn't become a problem.
close higher number overall somewhat
Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts,
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Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
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The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, ... The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning in the first quarter.