Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
coffin faster implies interest nail rates
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting. I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.
coffin faster implies interest nail rates
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting, ... I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.
august bank cautious central deviate fed interest policy raise rate reason until
There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, ... The central bank won't raise the interest rate until August or later.
almost best indicator monetary perfect rate research shows
Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation.
advantage boils continuing fence housing jumping low mortgage people rates sitting
It boils down to housing affordability; mortgage rates have risen, but they're still historically very low, ... We're continuing to see people who had been sitting on the fence jumping in to take advantage of these low rates before they go back up.
below economic falling goes growth oil percent potential rate rather talking
If oil goes to $50 a barrel, I think we're talking about 3 percent economic growth, rather than 4 percent growth, possibly. And the jobless rate could actually go up, not down, because the long-term potential economic growth rate is actually 3.5 percent -- we could actually be falling below potential.
basis continuing greenspan hiking improved interest labor market months peak rate sure waited
Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.
economy expected jobs losing loss rate starting viewed
We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.
crisis cut rate
The rate cut could be temporary, but in these times of crisis, I think it's not inappropriate,
affects begin fed future inflation issue monetary months policy rate worry
Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
election fed increase might position quarter rates time
By the time the election is over, the Fed might be in a position to increase rates more aggressively. In 2005, we might see rates going up more than a quarter (percentage point) every other month.
affect auto business economy factors fall higher interest lay local people pick rates sales spending start state wrong
But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
change consumers decline despite good house negative net picture prices rate slight worth
A slight decline should not change the picture that much, ... If you look at the fundamentals, despite all the negative news, consumers are in pretty good shape. The jobless rate is pretty low, and their net worth is going up because house prices going up.
assuming corporate half hopefully likely market negative offset profits psychology rates rise second stock
Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.