Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
affects begin fed future inflation issue monetary months policy rate worry
Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
august bank cautious central deviate fed interest policy raise rate reason until
There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, ... The central bank won't raise the interest rate until August or later.
distinct interest pushing rates
Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,
assuming corporate half hopefully likely market negative offset profits psychology rates rise second stock
Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.
change consumers decline despite good house negative net picture prices rate slight worth
A slight decline should not change the picture that much, ... If you look at the fundamentals, despite all the negative news, consumers are in pretty good shape. The jobless rate is pretty low, and their net worth is going up because house prices going up.
everybody hike increase rates sooner until
For a while, everybody thought there would be no increase until year-end. They may hike rates sooner than we realize.
assuming concern dollar fed good happen orderly raise rates taking
Dollar depreciation is good assuming it is taking place in an orderly manner. The concern is any precipitous plunge. If that were to happen the Fed would have to raise rates significantly.
bank central election employment fall hike inflation interest likely pricing rate wants
Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.
economy expected jobs losing loss rate starting viewed
We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.
election fed increase might position quarter rates time
By the time the election is over, the Fed might be in a position to increase rates more aggressively. In 2005, we might see rates going up more than a quarter (percentage point) every other month.
affect auto business economy factors fall higher interest lay local people pick rates sales spending start state wrong
But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
coffin faster implies interest nail rates
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting. I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.
coffin faster implies interest nail rates
This really was the nail in the coffin for the Aug. 24 meeting, ... I think it implies interest rates will go up faster in the future.
crisis cut rate
The rate cut could be temporary, but in these times of crisis, I think it's not inappropriate,