Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
confidence consistent consumers east employment gains impact market michigan middle overall picture report retail rising sales situation slower stock taking turmoil
Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.
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Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
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The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, ... The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning in the first quarter.
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Businesses are going to be waiting and seeing. The most important factor is how consumers behave, ... The cost of capital is important, but in the final analysis, you've got to sell products. If you're not going to sell products, you're not going to need capacity.
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Business spending is the Achilles heel of the economy, ... The economic baton needs to pass from consumers to businesses.
consumer drop markets sharp
If they don't deliver, we could see a sharp sell-off in markets and a drop in consumer confidence,
consumers continue spending
Consumers are not on a spending spree, but they continue to spend,
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Consumer demand has been tapped out, so we won't see a major thrust there, ... We're really counting on this replacement demand, especially in the high-tech area.
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That's one of the reasons why consumers are not going on a spending spree, though they're keeping the economic ship afloat. When higher unemployment numbers come out, that will probably rattle consumer confidence a bit.
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The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
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We have a situation where the baton of economic growth needs to pass from consumers to businesses, but that hasn't happened yet,
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Unless the labor market gains some steam and momentum, both real income and confidence of consumers would be hurt.
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A slight decline should not change the picture that much, ... If you look at the fundamentals, despite all the negative news, consumers are in pretty good shape. The jobless rate is pretty low, and their net worth is going up because house prices going up.
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The point is that mounting layoffs and weak consumer confidence will keep consumer spending fairly weak.