Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
becoming bit buying dollar exchange foreign gun investors looking settles shy until volatility
Foreign investors are becoming a bit more gun shy about buying U.S. assets. Until the dollar settles down, we are going to be looking at volatility in the foreign exchange markets.
appreciation assuming cuts dollar full inflation percentage strength
For every 10-percent appreciation in the dollar, it cuts inflation by one full percentage point, assuming the strength of the dollar is sustained,
everybody hike increase rates sooner until
For a while, everybody thought there would be no increase until year-end. They may hike rates sooner than we realize.
fed possible quite raise turn
It's quite possible the Fed will have to turn around and raise rates.
aircraft capital ceos clear despite including increases lower outside pieces question rising shipments spending
It's pretty clear that all the pieces for capital spending are in place, including rising sales, lower inventories and increases in shipments and orders, ... So, despite what CEOs say in public, there's no question that capital spending -- outside of aircraft and telecommunications -- has bottomed and is on the way up.
assuming concern dollar fed good happen orderly raise rates taking
Dollar depreciation is good assuming it is taking place in an orderly manner. The concern is any precipitous plunge. If that were to happen the Fed would have to raise rates significantly.
consumers continue spending
Consumers are not on a spending spree, but they continue to spend,
consumer counting demand major thrust
Consumer demand has been tapped out, so we won't see a major thrust there, ... We're really counting on this replacement demand, especially in the high-tech area.
commercial drag economic execute expect growth housing spending takes time
Construction spending is always a lagging economic indicator, especially in commercial construction, because of the time it takes to plan, execute and build. I expect housing to be a stabilizer, but commercial construction to be a drag on economic growth for a while to come.
bank central election employment fall hike inflation interest likely pricing rate wants
Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.
confidence consumer consumers economic higher keeping numbers rattle reasons ship spending though
That's one of the reasons why consumers are not going on a spending spree, though they're keeping the economic ship afloat. When higher unemployment numbers come out, that will probably rattle consumer confidence a bit.
bedrock confidence consumer jobs spending
The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
close
It's going to be very close to zero.
add balanced current decided fragile given market might state stock
It was a very balanced statement. Given the current fragile state of the stock market and the economy, they wanted to do nothing which might add to volatility, so they decided to say as little as possible.