Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
increases jobs monetary policy unless until
Until and unless there are significant increases in jobs over a period, tighter monetary policy is out of the question.
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Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation.
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If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.
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Clearly, the economic fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the falling value of the dollar, support a recovery. What we're not sure of is how strong the recovery is going to be.
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The committee members believe that the interest rate is too low, pointing to continuing, gradual increases in the rate. The central bank is reducing accommodation, not tightening monetary policy.
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The jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... The Fed keeps cutting rates as long as the jobless rate goes up. This time around is really no exception.
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Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
distinct interest pushing rates
Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,
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Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.
businesses coming continued employment gains hiring increase maintain might primarily reasons seeing temporary trying
Employment gains really haven't come from full-time workers. They're coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, ... Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of the reasons why we're seeing an increase in continued claims.
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Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.
economy seems
Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,
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There's so much liquidity in the economy right now that, left alone, it could become fuel for inflation, ... I can see the Fed taking preventive measures to ensure inflation doesn't become a problem.
close higher number overall somewhat
Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts,