Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
affects begin fed future inflation issue monetary months policy rate worry
Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
increases jobs monetary policy unless until
Until and unless there are significant increases in jobs over a period, tighter monetary policy is out of the question.
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Clearly, the economic fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the falling value of the dollar, support a recovery. What we're not sure of is how strong the recovery is going to be.
beginning economy hold monetary move policy renewed september shows signs soft until
If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.
almost best indicator monetary perfect rate research shows
Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation.
bank believe central committee gradual increases interest members monetary pointing rate reducing
The committee members believe that the interest rate is too low, pointing to continuing, gradual increases in the rate. The central bank is reducing accommodation, not tightening monetary policy.
best cutting fed goes indicator keeps monetary rate rates time
The jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... The Fed keeps cutting rates as long as the jobless rate goes up. This time around is really no exception.
stopped television terror watching
Immediately after the terror attacks, we were shell-shocked and stopped doing everything but watching television,
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The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
fed might people raising rapidly slowly starts suspect
Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.
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Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
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The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.
bullish holiday people shopping
I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.
revision sure surprised
I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.