Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
businesses coming continued employment gains hiring increase maintain might primarily reasons seeing temporary trying
Employment gains really haven't come from full-time workers. They're coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, ... Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of the reasons why we're seeing an increase in continued claims.
confidence consistent consumers east employment gains impact market michigan middle overall picture report retail rising sales situation slower stock taking turmoil
Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.
adding boost businesses confidence economic employers employment expansion hire hours people per trying
Businesses have regained confidence in the sustainability of this economic expansion and have started to hire people in earnest. Employers are trying to boost employment by adding more workers, not more hours per worker.
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To me, the key indicator is employment. We need to see at least three months of pretty hefty increases in employment before we'll be able to say we're out of woods,
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Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.
consumer employment picture rapid recovery sustained
Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
auto begun despite drop employment improve initial market plant saw
In the summertime, we have a lot of plant shutdowns, especially in the auto industry. Despite that, we saw a drop in initial claims, ... That's indicating that the employment market has not only stabilized, but has begun to improve slightly.
distinct interest pushing rates
Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,
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Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.
economy seems
Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,
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There's so much liquidity in the economy right now that, left alone, it could become fuel for inflation, ... I can see the Fed taking preventive measures to ensure inflation doesn't become a problem.
close higher number overall somewhat
Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts,
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Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
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The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, ... The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning in the first quarter.