Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
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Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.
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Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums,
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Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
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Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.
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Washington will pump massive amounts of aid into the Katrina-affected areas boosting economic activities.
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There's so much liquidity in the economy right now that, left alone, it could become fuel for inflation, ... I can see the Fed taking preventive measures to ensure inflation doesn't become a problem.
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This cut ... won't do much good to perk up economic growth, ... Now, bond yields should be trending up. The Achilles' heel of the economy, business spending, won't be affected much by this cut.
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This economic indicator continues the string of statistical signs supporting the current Federal Reserve stance, ... The recovery seems to continue, but it is still too weak to generate sufficient payroll growth for inflationary pressure.
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A slight decline should not change the picture that much, ... If you look at the fundamentals, despite all the negative news, consumers are in pretty good shape. The jobless rate is pretty low, and their net worth is going up because house prices going up.
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That's why confidence is important. If it remains healthy, gains in sales will be high enough to offset the negatives coming from job cuts. It's a tug-of-war; right now, job cuts are winning.
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This is a terrible number. The economic recovery is almost three years old, and the economy should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month.
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The third cylinder of economic growth is beginning to fire, ... The other two cylinders are inventory swings and consumer spending. Outside of telecommunications and airplanes, business capital spending has begun to improve already, beginning in the first quarter.
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Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts,
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If they don't deliver, we could see a sharp sell-off in markets and a drop in consumer confidence,