Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
confidence consumer consumers economic higher keeping numbers rattle reasons ship spending though
That's one of the reasons why consumers are not going on a spending spree, though they're keeping the economic ship afloat. When higher unemployment numbers come out, that will probably rattle consumer confidence a bit.
confidence consumer fairly layoffs mounting point spending weak
The point is that mounting layoffs and weak consumer confidence will keep consumer spending fairly weak.
increases jobs monetary policy unless until
Until and unless there are significant increases in jobs over a period, tighter monetary policy is out of the question.
argue caution change economic economy expectation fourth hopefully lead looking numbers optimism quarter statement third
We're looking for the wording of the Fed's statement to change in an encouraging direction. The economic numbers would argue for more optimism than caution at this point, ... My expectation is that this economy will be sizzling in the third quarter and hopefully in the fourth quarter, and that should lead to more jobs.
economy expected jobs losing loss rate starting viewed
We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.
cake demand eat goods lower satisfy services
We've been able to have our cake and eat it too -- satisfy our demand for goods and services and at lower prices,
balance boost current economic inventory
We're going to get an economic boost from not only production, but from inventory buildup during the current quarter, and probably for the balance of this year.
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What's lacking is confidence, so businesses aren't spending the money they have, ... That's why I don't necessarily think it takes a huge fiscal stimulus package to get the economy moving.
both confidence consumers gains income labor market steam unless
Unless the labor market gains some steam and momentum, both real income and confidence of consumers would be hurt.
jobs labor market translate
Clearly, the labor market is improving, and this should translate into more jobs in the future,
economic falling fiscal monetary recovery strong support sure value
Clearly, the economic fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the falling value of the dollar, support a recovery. What we're not sure of is how strong the recovery is going to be.
betting gone recession
Clearly, as a betting man, I would have to say the probability of a recession has gone up significantly,
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By the time the election is over, the Fed might be in a position to increase rates more aggressively. In 2005, we might see rates going up more than a quarter (percentage point) every other month.
affect auto business economy factors fall higher interest lay local people pick rates sales spending start state wrong
But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.