Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
beginning conviction market positive rally spend stock strong
It will have some positive effect, but I don't think there's a strong conviction the stock market rally is going to be sustained. No one is really cashing it in and beginning to spend more money.
bottom hit hopefully inventory rebuilding
We have probably hit the bottom in inventory liquidation, and hopefully we are actually now rebuilding inventory,
baton consumers economic growth happened needs pass situation
We have a situation where the baton of economic growth needs to pass from consumers to businesses, but that hasn't happened yet,
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We've been able to have our cake and eat it too -- satisfy our demand for goods and services and at lower prices,
balance boost current economic inventory
We're going to get an economic boost from not only production, but from inventory buildup during the current quarter, and probably for the balance of this year.
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What's lacking is confidence, so businesses aren't spending the money they have, ... That's why I don't necessarily think it takes a huge fiscal stimulus package to get the economy moving.
both confidence consumers gains income labor market steam unless
Unless the labor market gains some steam and momentum, both real income and confidence of consumers would be hurt.
economy expected jobs losing loss rate starting viewed
We're still losing jobs, but the rate of loss is expected to slow, ... That, hopefully, will be viewed that the economy is starting to improve.
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We're looking for the wording of the Fed's statement to change in an encouraging direction. The economic numbers would argue for more optimism than caution at this point, ... My expectation is that this economy will be sizzling in the third quarter and hopefully in the fourth quarter, and that should lead to more jobs.
continue expectation hopefully improve numbers recession
The expectation is that the NAPM numbers should continue to improve and that the manufacturing recession is hopefully going away.
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This scenario is highly unlikely, but can't be ruled out. The best outcome is a gradual and orderly fall in the value of the dollar improving the trade balance; this is in fact what has been happening.
crisis cut rate
The rate cut could be temporary, but in these times of crisis, I think it's not inappropriate,
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The pause in economic growth and the drop in confidence will probably cause the Fed to tighten later rather than sooner. The earliest I can see them tightening is the end of June, and they could quite possibly wait until August.
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Two weeks ago traders thought there was no chance. If you had asked me Thursday, I would have said less than a 50 percent chance (of a December hike), at best I would have said a 50-50 chance. Now it looks pretty likely.