Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
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Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation.
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If the economy turns up by next spring, we should see housing doing better by then, ... Between now and the end of the year will be the worst period for housing.
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If the economy does not move out of the soft patch, monetary policy could be on hold beginning September until the economy shows signs of renewed strength.
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If oil goes to $50 a barrel, I think we're talking about 3 percent economic growth, rather than 4 percent growth, possibly. And the jobless rate could actually go up, not down, because the long-term potential economic growth rate is actually 3.5 percent -- we could actually be falling below potential.
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Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.
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Had this report showed another plunge in confidence, then I think it would have been a sure bet to expect another cut sometime in April,
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If there were a bubble in California and if it were to burst, that would be a national economic catastrophe.
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Clearly, the labor market is improving, and this should translate into more jobs in the future,
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Clearly, the economic fundamentals of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the falling value of the dollar, support a recovery. What we're not sure of is how strong the recovery is going to be.
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Clearly, as a betting man, I would have to say the probability of a recession has gone up significantly,
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By the time the election is over, the Fed might be in a position to increase rates more aggressively. In 2005, we might see rates going up more than a quarter (percentage point) every other month.
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But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
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Inventories really being run down to ground, but that means that any increase in demand in the future will be translated into more production and jobs. We're feeling the pain right now, but it means we're more likely to get economic growth starting early next year.
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I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.