Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
fed might people raising rapidly slowly starts suspect
Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.
consumer employment picture rapid recovery sustained
Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
economy economy-and-economics performs prices remain rest
If prices remain where they are, and the rest of the economy performs well, that won't be the end of the world,
auto begun despite drop employment improve initial market plant saw
In the summertime, we have a lot of plant shutdowns, especially in the auto industry. Despite that, we saw a drop in initial claims, ... That's indicating that the employment market has not only stabilized, but has begun to improve slightly.
august cuts earlier economy fed good next overdoing tax worry
Hopefully, by August (when the Fed next meets), we should have a pretty good idea that the economy is expanding. A tax rebate and earlier cuts will be working. If the Fed cuts in August, we will worry more about them overdoing it.
effect net
I don't think the net effect would be positive,
based doubt inflation period pull sustained
I doubt that, just based on Friday's number, they'll pull the trigger. They'll want to see a sustained period of inflation before they do that.
businesses demand higher hire hiring increase people production
I don't think businesses will hire more people in anticipation of higher demand. They want to see demand first. They feel they have the flexibility to increase production without hiring people.
beyond deficit goes lead spending
If deficit spending goes well beyond 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008, it will lead to crowding out,
astray far mainstream people wrong
How so many people went so far astray from the mainstream and were wrong is probably unprecedented,
corporate cuts economic impact months tax until
The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.
bullish holiday people shopping
I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.
cuts economy economy-and-economics fastest government help likely money next spend step tax
If you want to really help the economy right away, the fastest way to do that is to have the government spend the money itself, ... The next step would be to give tax cuts to low- and middle-income people, who are more likely to spend the money.
clearly cooling economy
The economy is clearly cooling or downshifting somewhat,