Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
confidence consistent consumers east employment gains impact market michigan middle overall picture report retail rising sales situation slower stock taking turmoil
Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.
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Both consumer and business confidence is depressed because of uncertainty surrounding the war, ... If we can somehow bring closure to the war situation, I would expect confidence to improve dramatically, taking with it the economy and the stock market.
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Businesses have regained confidence in the sustainability of this economic expansion and have started to hire people in earnest. Employers are trying to boost employment by adding more workers, not more hours per worker.
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That's one of the reasons why consumers are not going on a spending spree, though they're keeping the economic ship afloat. When higher unemployment numbers come out, that will probably rattle consumer confidence a bit.
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The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
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Unless the labor market gains some steam and momentum, both real income and confidence of consumers would be hurt.
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The pause in economic growth and the drop in confidence will probably cause the Fed to tighten later rather than sooner. The earliest I can see them tightening is the end of June, and they could quite possibly wait until August.
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That's why confidence is important. If it remains healthy, gains in sales will be high enough to offset the negatives coming from job cuts. It's a tug-of-war; right now, job cuts are winning.
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The point is that mounting layoffs and weak consumer confidence will keep consumer spending fairly weak.
build confidence economy greater people purchases
And now that the economy is improving, people have greater confidence to make purchases and build homes.
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The loss of confidence in the financial reporting of Corporate America could hurt both consumer and business spending, ... The reduced availability and higher cost of credit, as well as the desire to strengthen the balance sheet, could cause firms to postpone capital spending plans and accelerate layoffs.
distinct interest pushing rates
Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,
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Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.
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Employment gains really haven't come from full-time workers. They're coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, ... Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of the reasons why we're seeing an increase in continued claims.